Resilience and growth: Quebec’s real estate market set to maintain strong momentum in 2026
While the national housing market readjusts, the province of Quebec is seeing a significant increase in prices, driven by a shortage of inventory and growing demand
Highlights:
- Royal LePage® forecasts the aggregate price of a home in the province of Quebec will increase 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter in 2025.
- Among Canada’s largest markets, the Greater Montreal Area is expected to see prices rise by 5.0% in 2026, contrasting with Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver, where declines of 4.5% and 3.5%, respectively, are expected.
- For the second consecutive year, Quebec City leads all major Canadian regions, with an anticipated aggregate home price increase of 12.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025.
MONTREAL, December 9, 2025 – While 2026 is shaping up to be a year of recalibration for the Canadian real estate market, the province of Quebec stands out as a notable exception, showing continued resilience and significant price growth, in contrast to the anticipated declines in some major cities across the country. This momentum is particularly striking in the Greater Montreal Area, where an increase in prices is anticipated, while the greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver are expected to record declines. In this favourable context, Quebec City stands out even more, maintaining its position as the national leader in real estate appreciation for the second consecutive year.
According to the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate[1] price of a home in the province of Quebec is set to rise 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter in 2025, to reach $485,138.
“The Quebec real estate market proved resilient in 2025, positioning itself favourably compared to other major Canadian regions,” said Dominic St-Pierre, executive vice president of business development, Royal LePage. “Although economic uncertainty has dampened consumer confidence across Canada, Quebecers have proven more resilient and maintained their home buying activity, leading to a notable appreciation in property prices. We anticipate steady demand and stable inventory levels in 2026, with a notable increase in prices across the province.”
Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of a single-family detached home and condominium in the province will increase 8.0% and 3.0% to reach $536,220 and $403,657, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.[2]
Quebec, a distinct market within Canada
Quebec’s property market has benefited from strong fundamentals, including interest rates that have likely reached a floor and signs of economic stabilization. Greater Montreal, in particular, stands apart from its pricier counterparts of Toronto and Vancouver. While those markets are anticipating price declines, Montréal continues to offer relative affordability and shows no signs of a condominium surplus, which further supports its stability. Investors here also tend to favour plexes, a type of property that continues to perform extremely well.
“Montréal’s relative affordability compared with other major Canadian cities, combined with a balanced supply of condominiums, makes it a particularly attractive market. This momentum, despite a slight slowdown in the fall, is expected to sustain strong activity in 2026, especially in the surrounding areas where young families can still find affordable options.”
For the second consecutive year, the city of Quebec is positioned as the undisputed leader in property price growth in Canada. The aggregate price of a home is forecast to rise by 12.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with the same quarter in 2025, reflecting exceptional market momentum.
“Quebec City is undoubtedly the star of our market this year, and the forecast for 2026 confirms this trend,” said St-Pierre. “Local demand is very strong, supported by a robust job market and solid fundamentals. Despite the significant gains, the market remains relatively affordable, and continues to attract buyers, placing sustained pressure on prices. It is a remarkable performance, one we expect to see continue.”
The end of the interest rate cutting cycle
In 2025, the Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate four times, bringing it down to 2.25%. After 18 months of rate cuts, the central bank is now focused on supporting a slowing economy while keeping inflation under control. Most economists expect the Bank will only make further cuts in the event of significant economic weakness, as Canada continues to navigate trade tensions with the United States.
“We believe that interest rates have reached their lowest point, or are very close to it. The Bank of Canada has clearly communicated that it has limited room to further stimulate demand through monetary policy without jeopardizing inflation control,” said St-Pierre. “In Quebec, the rate cuts have had a very positive impact, fuelling already strong demand and contributing to an environment conducive to activity. However, the urgency that characterized purchasing decisions is no longer; consumers are now approaching the market in a more measured way.”
Canada-US relations and economic confidence
2025 was marked by economic uncertainty due to trade tensions with the United States. While these tensions may have affected consumer confidence nationally, their impact was less pronounced in Quebec, where the market did not show any significant slowdown.
“In Quebec, consumers seem to have been less directly affected by the uncertainty surrounding trade relations with our neighbours to the south, and the real estate market has not slowed down the way it has in other provinces,” noted St-Pierre. “However, the Canadian economy as a whole would benefit greatly from a stable trade agreement. Quebecers, like all Canadians, are waiting to see if such an agreement will be reached, which could lead to a general improvement in the economy and, in turn, renewed confidence in the market overall.”
The challenges of housing starts and political engagement
Despite efforts, obstacles to increase housing supply persist. While notable gains in housing starts have been observed in some regions, significant declines have been recorded elsewhere in the country. In Montreal, the new municipal administration will have to redouble its efforts to support new construction, as inventory remains low and demand strong.
“A general election is scheduled for 2026 in Quebec. Quebecers are eagerly awaiting strong and concrete commitments on housing policy,” said St-Pierre. “The housing crisis is a major concern, and it is crucial that the various levels of government work together to implement effective measures that will stimulate supply and ensure long-term affordability in the province.”
Royal LePage 2026 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2026-forecast-QC
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
Greater Montreal Area
In the Greater Montreal Area, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to increase by 5.0% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching $676,725. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is expected to rise 6.0% to $796,908, while that of a condominium is expected to increase 2.5% to $502,558.
“The Greater Montreal market was characterised by sustained demand for properties under $1 million, while the luxury segment saw weaker activity in the last quarter,” said Marc Lefrançois, chartered real estate broker at Royal LePage Tendance. “Despite a slight dip in activity in October, and a more pronounced slowdown in the city centre and Laval, we are seeing that Quebec consumers seem less affected by economic uncertainty and trade tensions than in other parts of the country.”
Lefrançois adds: “Interest rates, which buyers now consider reasonable, contribute to a sense of confidence. Overall, demand for 2026 is expected to remain similar to that of 2025, or even slightly better. Inventory is steadily increasing, but not alarmingly so, which offers buyers more choice, particularly those opting to purchase in Montreal’s suburbs, which are considered more affordable for young families.”
Royal LePage 2026 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2026-forecast-QC
Quebec City
In Quebec City, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 12.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter in 2025, reaching $501,984. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is forecast to increase 14.0% to $536,598, while that of a condominium is expected to increase 5.0% to $356,160.
“The Quebec City real estate market will continue to stand out for its strength in 2026,” said Francis Turmel, residential and commercial real estate broker with the Francis Turmel Team, Royal LePage Blanc & Noir. “With inventory remaining low and demand strong, pressure on prices will remain high. Lower interest rates have fuelled buyer optimism. It is clear that the Quebec City region will remain one of the most dynamic in the province.”
The single-family home segment, which is in highest demand, is expected to see a sharp rise in prices, with certain neighbourhoods such as Lebourgneuf, Montcalm and Cap-Rouge experiencing stronger and more sustained appreciation, as is typically the case. A more moderate increase is anticipated for condominiums. A slight slowdown was felt at the end of the year, mainly due to new regulations like Bill 16, and the sometimes more complex retrofitting of older condominiums.
“Despite the competition, buyers have become accustomed to navigating a market with multiple-offer scenarios and are increasingly comfortable investing, given the continued appreciation of prices,” added Turmel. “However, the rapidly changing market can make our clients vulnerable. That’s why the support of an experienced real estate agent is more important than ever to guide them, reassure them and effectively defend their interests.”
Royal LePage 2026 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2026-forecast-QC
Gatineau
In Gatineau, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter in 2025, reaching $472,889. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is forecast to increase 2.0% to $592,110, while that of a condominium is expected to decrease 3.0% to $311,176.
“For Gatineau, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of stabilization, with the market adjusting to lower interest rates and rising inventory,” said Karine Séguin, chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Vallée de l’Outaouais. “Buyers, although more active than before thanks to renewed confidence, remain selective and are taking the time to evaluate their options. We do not anticipate a surge in demand, but rather stable activity, slightly improved compared to 2025.”
Séguin also highlights a significant duality in the Gatineau market for 2026. “We are seeing a clear distinction between property segments. Condominium inventory is on the rise, and the combination of higher maintenance fees and the impact of new legislation, such as Bill 16, is making buyers more cautious, which tends to put downward pressure on prices. On the other hand, the single-family home segment continues to be in high demand – particularly affordable, turnkey properties, which are very attractive to buyers and should continue to see prices increase.”
This marked divergence between the two property types means that 2026 will require a nuanced approach. “Buyers will need to pay particular attention to the specifics of each segment, while sellers will need to adjust their strategies according to the type of property they are putting on the market. A clear understanding of these dynamics will be essential for making informed decisions,” said Séguin.
Royal LePage 2026 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2026-forecast-QC
Sherbrooke
In Sherbrooke, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 8.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter in 2025, reaching $435,564. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is forecast to increase 7.0% to $477,113.
“Successive cuts to the key lending rate have really stimulated demand, leading to a surprising fall market compared to last year,” said Jean-François Bérubé, chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Évolution EB. “Buyer confidence is strong, even more so than last year, particularly because interest rates have stabilized. These conditions lay the foundation for sustained growth in our market in 2026.”
Bérubé added that the single-family home segment remains the main driver of the Sherbrooke real estate market. “Demand is very strong for this type of property, supported by first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and buyers from other regions across Quebec. Inventory remains low, having even tightened slightly compared to last year, despite an increase in sales, which is keeping constant upward pressure on prices. We anticipate a much more favourable year in 2026 for the construction of new single-family homes, despite the ongoing challenges related to the shortage of land due to municipal restrictions.”
Royal LePage 2026 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2026-forecast-QC
Trois-Rivières
In Trois-Rivières, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 10.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter in 2025, reaching $430,760. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is forecast to increase 8.0% to $459,540.
“Home prices are expected to continue to rise significantly in 2026, provided that the local economy remains strong,” said Martin Leblanc, real estate broker, Royal LePage Centre. “Demand will remain high across the board, and inventory should continue to increase significantly, offering buyers more choice.”
Leblanc continues: “The single-family home segment remains particularly heated, supported by the arrival of residents from Montreal and Quebec City seeking a new lifestyle and greater affordability. In addition, the development of major industrial projects, such as the vehicle battery plant in Bécancour, is attracting new workers and their families, which is maintaining strong demand for this type of property in the region. Trois-Rivières continues to offer an affordable option for families and first-time buyers, where properties remain highly sought after.”
Royal LePage 2026 Quebec Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table-2026-forecast-QC
About the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast
The Royal LePage forecast provides year-over-year price predictions for the five largest urban markets in the province of Quebec. Prices presented are based on the Royal LePage House Price Survey, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Provincial price estimates have been updated to include all regions within the province and therefore may vary from previous reports. Additionally, commentary on housing market trends and data on price and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.
About Royal LePage
Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for more than 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.
Royal LePage® is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada and is used under licence by Bridgemarq Real Estate Services®.
Media contact:
Appolline Risacher
Burson on behalf of Royal LePage
appolline.risacher@bursonglobal.com
418-559-8930
[1] Royal LePage’s aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Provincial price estimates have been updated to include all regions within the province and therefore may vary from previous reports.
[2] Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian valuation company. Price forecast reflects Q4 2026 over Q4 2025 projections.
