Housing Price Market Report: Greater Toronto Area – Q4 2025
Today, Royal LePage® released its Q4 2025 House Price Survey. Below are highlights from the report for the Greater Toronto Area, Ontario, housing market.
- The aggregate[1] home price decreased 5.7% year over year to $1,084,300 in Q4 2025, and decreased 2.7% from Q3 2025.
- The median price of a single-family detached home decreased 4.4% year over year to $1,364,300.
- The median price of a condominium decreased 8.2% year over year to $656,000.
- In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased 6.0% year over year to $1,034,400 in Q4 2025.
- The median price of a single-family detached home decreased 9.8% year over year to $1,463,500, while the median price of a condominium decreased 6.5% to $637,000.
- Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will decrease 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.
Thursday, January 15th, 2025 – “Toronto did not experience the anticipated pickup in activity during the final months of 2025, despite an interest rate cut in October. December, in particular, remained notably sluggish, with sales falling by double digits compared to typical seasonal levels. Overall, the quarter was soft, with sales largely flat on a month-over-month basis and down compared to the prior year,” said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Your Community Realty. “Much of this can be attributed to buyer hesitation, as ongoing rate uncertainty and persistent affordability pressures continue to weigh heavily on purchasing decisions. Some sellers, meanwhile, have also stepped back, pulling listings amid subdued demand and limited buyer engagement.”
Zigelstein also noted that the city’s condominium market remains under downward pressure, driven by elevated inventory levels and a temporary retreat from investors. Pre-construction activity continues to stagnate, with new project launches limited as developers adopt a cautious stance in response to softer market conditions.
“The market is expected to remain buyer-friendly in early 2026 and into the spring, supported by rising inventory levels and continued price softness. As interest rates settle near their floor and confidence begins to improve, market activity should gradually increase, helping to move conditions toward a more balanced state,” said Zigelstein. “Prices are expected to stabilize rather than soar, as increased supply levels will continue to keep a lid on price appreciation, even as demand slowly returns.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will decrease 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.
Nationally, the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 1.5 per cent year over year to $807,200 in the fourth quarter of 2025. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price posted a similar decline of 1.1 per cent, reflecting softer market conditions and persistent buyer caution that weighed on activity during the traditionally active fall season.
“Despite subdued activity levels, home prices largely held their ground in the final quarter of 2025,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Economic uncertainty – driven by trade disputes and broader geopolitical tensions – has weighed on consumer confidence and muted what is typically a more active fall market. Instead of a fall seasonal surge, we saw a quieter close to the year.
“That said, buyers heading into the spring market have a meaningful advantage over last year: lower borrowing costs, stable or lower property prices, and choice. In an era where home inventory is chronically constrained, inventory levels are Goldilocks healthy. Together, these conditions are creating a genuine window of opportunity, particularly for first-time buyers in Canada’s most expensive markets.”
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.8 per cent year over year to $849,100, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.9 per cent year over year to $575,300. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.3 per cent, and the median price of a condominium decreased 0.9 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.
Among Canada’s major cities, the most pronounced price declines were concentrated in the most expensive metropolitan markets – Toronto and Vancouver – where aggregate home prices fell 5.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter.
“At long last, home values across Canada are beginning to compress,” said Soper. “For years, price growth in Toronto and Vancouver far outpaced the rest of the country, but our two most expensive metro markets have experienced gradual price declines for four years now, while other major cities saw steady, modest appreciation and are closing the gap.
“This convergence has meaningful implications. As affordability improves in Southern Ontario and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland, households are less likely to feel pressured to relocate purely on housing costs, potentially tempering the interprovincial migration patterns that intensified during the pandemic.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 1.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
[1] Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.
